Here is the latest from the RVIA on November Shipments; the RV slump continues:
The RV Industry Association’s November survey of manufacturers found that total RV shipments ended the month with 29,644 wholesale shipments, a decrease of 10.2% from the 33,023 units shipped last November.
While many RV newsletters are talking about this drop, there is no speculation on why the slump continues. Most speculate that it is driven by fears that the economy might enter a recession; however there really seems to be no sign of that.
So with the economy growing one would need to wonder what is impacting the shipments. Again shipments from the factory do not equate to sales at the dealerships, which could be greater depending on their standing inventory. In fact there are still brand new 2018 models sitting at dealerships, one just has to look to find them. In fact, a simple search for new 2018 RVs on www.rvtrader.com provided over 2100 RVs to pick from (and that is just one site).
What does that tell you about the glut that may still exist in a dealers inventory? Not to mention the glut of used models due to record sales from just a few years ago…those are being purchased as well.
The RV industry expects 2020 to be the year they get away from double digit losses. They expect that their numbers will come in perhaps 3 to 4 percent lower than this year; showing the decline in shipments slowing.
If this issue were really driven by economic fears why would the decline begin to bottom out? Certainly an election year is always viewed as a time when there is much uncertainty; and that makes consumers avoid large purchases.
It continues to make sense to me that we are seeing a lag from when all the production went through the ceiling and dealerships speculated on how much inventory they could turn, but were overly optimistic. This coupled with quality and customer service issues are certainly nicking away at RV shipments.
Social Media is warning everyone about the units made during the last boom period where the RV industry broke records in 2017/2018. Add to that the numerous RV horror stories around quality issues that consumers experience with brand new units; and you can see why the RV industry is getting a black eye. Except in this case they are punching themselves. The lack of quality is evident as is the lack of customer service at most Manufacturers. I won’t even get into the service aspect as that could fill an entire book.
For most manufacturing operations, something like this would be a wake up call. For the RV industry, it really seems like they continue to go about their daily routines; oblivious to all of the chaos on social media.
As I have said many times, I am not a fan of big government or regulations. However, when brand new units have:
- Walls that are scorching behind microwaves
- Slides that are extending while on traveling on the highway
- Brake wires that are too long and rub on tires and then short out
- Frames twisting
- Axles out of alignment and undersized for the unit
- Undersized Springs
- Roofs that are bad as they leave the factory
- and the list goes on and on
Well then it’s probably time for the government to step in and do some sort of regulation.
Trust me, if RVs were solid out of the gates, this decline in shipments would be much lower. I love my travel trailer and feel I the manufacturer has treated me fairly; but many of my issues would have easily been avoided on the shop floor. I want the RV industry to thrive but not at the expense of the consumer.
If you want to see more of what I feel is behind whats happening in the RV industry you can click here.
The RV Slump Continues……
Here is the latest from the RVIA on November Shipments; the RV slump continues:
The RV Industry Association’s November survey of manufacturers found that total RV shipments ended the month with 29,644 wholesale shipments, a decrease of 10.2% from the 33,023 units shipped last November.
While many RV newsletters are talking about this drop, there is no speculation on why the slump continues. Most speculate that it is driven by fears that the economy might enter a recession; however there really seems to be no sign of that.
So with the economy growing one would need to wonder what is impacting the shipments. Again shipments from the factory do not equate to sales at the dealerships, which could be greater depending on their standing inventory. In fact there are still brand new 2018 models sitting at dealerships, one just has to look to find them. In fact, a simple search for new 2018 RVs on www.rvtrader.com provided over 2100 RVs to pick from (and that is just one site).
What does that tell you about the glut that may still exist in a dealers inventory? Not to mention the glut of used models due to record sales from just a few years ago…those are being purchased as well.
The RV industry expects 2020 to be the year they get away from double digit losses. They expect that their numbers will come in perhaps 3 to 4 percent lower than this year; showing the decline in shipments slowing.
If this issue were really driven by economic fears why would the decline begin to bottom out? Certainly an election year is always viewed as a time when there is much uncertainty; and that makes consumers avoid large purchases.
It continues to make sense to me that we are seeing a lag from when all the production went through the ceiling and dealerships speculated on how much inventory they could turn, but were overly optimistic. This coupled with quality and customer service issues are certainly nicking away at RV shipments.
Social Media is warning everyone about the units made during the last boom period where the RV industry broke records in 2017/2018. Add to that the numerous RV horror stories around quality issues that consumers experience with brand new units; and you can see why the RV industry is getting a black eye. Except in this case they are punching themselves. The lack of quality is evident as is the lack of customer service at most Manufacturers. I won’t even get into the service aspect as that could fill an entire book.
For most manufacturing operations, something like this would be a wake up call. For the RV industry, it really seems like they continue to go about their daily routines; oblivious to all of the chaos on social media.
As I have said many times, I am not a fan of big government or regulations. However, when brand new units have:
Well then it’s probably time for the government to step in and do some sort of regulation.
Trust me, if RVs were solid out of the gates, this decline in shipments would be much lower. I love my travel trailer and feel I the manufacturer has treated me fairly; but many of my issues would have easily been avoided on the shop floor. I want the RV industry to thrive but not at the expense of the consumer.
If you want to see more of what I feel is behind whats happening in the RV industry you can click here.
john.martini.patterson@gmail.com
January 4, 2020
Blog, Industry Commentary
quality, rv industry, RV Shipments, rv slump, Travel Trailer, travel trailer blog, Travel Trailer Blogs, Travel Trailer Nation, travel trailer nation blog