The last eight years has shown continued growth in the RV industry.  This is a refreshing change from the devastating declines starting around 2007/2008 when RV Conglomerates took advantage of the downturn and gobbled up long time RV companies.  I really don’t feel this is the type of decline we are now facing.  

RV ownership has reached a record level, a 64% gain since 1980 and a 16% gain since 2001.  One of the factors driving this is the number of Baby Boomers buying RV’s post retirement, IRS tax deductions, and relatively decent interest rates.

Octobers numbers reveal that RV shipments are down 11% as compared to October of 2017.  While that might sound a bit bleak, Octobers numbers were still 40.7% higher than September of this year.

Year-to-date wholesale shipments for 2018 are currently at 422,286 units; down (-1.1%) compared to 2017.   Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels, and pop-ups, are down (-0.5%) at 372,012 units;  motor-home shipments are down -5.1%  (50,274 units).  The Park Model RV’s are down 5.7% for the year.

On an interesting note, only travel trailers (.5%) and truck campers (26.2%) are positive for the year.

Even though the third quarter saw a dip in RV shipments, it was still the largest third quarter on record since 1972.  Overall the RV industry is only down 1.1% over last year which may just be a small bump in the road.

I don’t believe that a 1.1% drop will really be enough to worry the RV manufacturers; and if you were thinking a slowdown might actually force the manufactures to concentrate more on quality than throughput, don’t count on it.  The manufacturers are still at full throttle.

So, based on these numbers, is there an RV Industry slowdown?  It is hard to know for sure, and 2019 is projected by one industry analyst ( Richard Curtin)  to be slightly down (5%) for 2019.  Meanwhile the RVIA predicts that 2019 will have Projected RV shipments higher than in any prior year since 1973.  So it appears the jury is still out.

The President of the RV Industry Association, Frank Hugelmeyer states  “The mild downturn in shipments reflects the impact of higher manufacturing costs for RV producers, and RV dealers adjusting their inventories due to changes in inventory carrying costs”. 

It is important to remember that the RV manufacturers are not the only industry affected in a downturn.  Every RV related industry takes a hit, from inspectors all the way down to your mom and pop RV supply house.  Consider Lippert Industries for instance, the largest component and accessory manufacturer for RVs.  You can read how they have been affected by clicking  here.

My personal opinion is that the 2019 year will be slightly down.  Why?  The market has been producing at a record rate for the last eight years;  and I personally believe that the RV market is somewhat saturated.  Sure, folks will be trading older model RVs for newer ones every year;  but the older RVs are also absorbed in the market place.   As a matter of fact, I believe there is a growing trend towards buying a slightly older unit.  A unit that is not brand new is more than likely to have had most of the bugs worked out of it; and consumers are becoming more aware of this fact.  Buyers don’t want to deal with travel trailer issues, they want to camp.

This reminds me a little of the auto industry prior to the crash in 2008.  Dealers constantly trying to get consumers to buy ahead ( buy earlier than the norm) with great deals and incentives offered.   Soon all the new car buyers that would have been spread over a five year period were condensed into a smaller window resulting in a major slump.  I’m not saying this is the case with RV’s right now, but they continue to have incredible year over year shipments.  Sooner or later, like everything else, there will be  a correction; even if it is a small one.

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