Some interesting developments in the RV world that you should find interesting:
Aprils RV Shipments were up over 11% compared to April of 2021 (a record Year). Click here to view the report.
Year to Date shipments are up over 15% compared to 2021
Most of the increase is due to building Dealer Stock, based on the statement by RV Industry Association President & CEO Craig Kirby, who states; “This latest shipment report shows more RVs are headed to dealer lots to provide consumers with a variety of options as they look to enjoy the great outdoors and go RVing this summer.”
The RVIA states that a survey in 2021 found that 9.6 million households are planning to buy an RV in the next five years.
The Economy affects more than just the RV Shipments.
So it appears the increased sales numbers are really driven by a build up of inventory in the Dealer Lots. This is something I eluded to in my last post regarding RV shipments.
Obviously, the fuel costs right now, along with inflation will have an impact on sales. A 2018 study by the RVIA touted that fuel would need to reach $13.00 per gallon for RVing to lose its economic advantage over a regular vacation. While that may be true, what it probably fails to recognize is that in this kind of economic situation folks would not even consider taking a non-RV vacation. In reality very few people can afford $6.00 per gallon gasoline over thousands of miles at perhaps 10 miles per gallon. At $.60 per mile that means you can expect to pay $600.00 for a 1000 mile trip plus camping costs etc.
Keep in mind even the RVIA has downgraded their 2022 outlook. Last year they stated that 2022 would be even bigger than 2021. Now they are saying “The new forecast projects 2022 RV shipments to range between 537,800 and 561,900 units with a most likely year-end total of 549,900 units, an (-8.4%) decline from the 600,240 shipped in 2021”. They previously were predicting a 4% increase or 600,000 units in 2022.
I am not trying to be negative, I am just trying to be realistic about the current state of affairs. I would love to see more folks get into the RV lifestyle. However, I don’t think the 9.6 million number (of new rvers over the next five years) will hold water in the current economic situation we find ourselves in. Right now inflation is at a 40 year high of 8.6%. If you have gone to the grocery store (or any shopping) lately you can see and feel the effects. RVing is a “Choice” not a “Requirement” so many will defer from choice purchases in this economy.
Those that are full-time RVers may need to curtail their activities as well.
Remember that the RV industry is a 140 billion dollar enterprise. It provides over 13.6 Billion in tax revenue and supports over 678,000 American jobs. This is why I say that the RV market is an indicator of the US economy. No one in their right mind would want to see the far reaching effects of a downturn to this market; but it is knocking on the door.
So my expectation is that we will continue to see the Used RV market grow; and the New RV Sales decline. However, these are just my opinions based on what I see and read each day.
From a personal standpoint we have not changed our travel plans at this point. However we are feeling the impact, just like you.
RV News
Some interesting developments in the RV world that you should find interesting:
So it appears the increased sales numbers are really driven by a build up of inventory in the Dealer Lots. This is something I eluded to in my last post regarding RV shipments.
Obviously, the fuel costs right now, along with inflation will have an impact on sales. A 2018 study by the RVIA touted that fuel would need to reach $13.00 per gallon for RVing to lose its economic advantage over a regular vacation. While that may be true, what it probably fails to recognize is that in this kind of economic situation folks would not even consider taking a non-RV vacation. In reality very few people can afford $6.00 per gallon gasoline over thousands of miles at perhaps 10 miles per gallon. At $.60 per mile that means you can expect to pay $600.00 for a 1000 mile trip plus camping costs etc.
Keep in mind even the RVIA has downgraded their 2022 outlook. Last year they stated that 2022 would be even bigger than 2021. Now they are saying “The new forecast projects 2022 RV shipments to range between 537,800 and 561,900 units with a most likely year-end total of 549,900 units, an (-8.4%) decline from the 600,240 shipped in 2021”. They previously were predicting a 4% increase or 600,000 units in 2022.
I am not trying to be negative, I am just trying to be realistic about the current state of affairs. I would love to see more folks get into the RV lifestyle. However, I don’t think the 9.6 million number (of new rvers over the next five years) will hold water in the current economic situation we find ourselves in. Right now inflation is at a 40 year high of 8.6%. If you have gone to the grocery store (or any shopping) lately you can see and feel the effects. RVing is a “Choice” not a “Requirement” so many will defer from choice purchases in this economy.
Those that are full-time RVers may need to curtail their activities as well.
Remember that the RV industry is a 140 billion dollar enterprise. It provides over 13.6 Billion in tax revenue and supports over 678,000 American jobs. This is why I say that the RV market is an indicator of the US economy. No one in their right mind would want to see the far reaching effects of a downturn to this market; but it is knocking on the door.
So my expectation is that we will continue to see the Used RV market grow; and the New RV Sales decline. However, these are just my opinions based on what I see and read each day.
From a personal standpoint we have not changed our travel plans at this point. However we are feeling the impact, just like you.
john.martini.patterson@gmail.com
June 13, 2022
Blog, Industry Commentary