It may have been a record month of May for RV shipments but the forecast remains downgraded as compared to last years predictions of a record year in 2022.

As I mentioned previously, the RVIA has downgraded their 2022 outlook. Now they are saying “The new forecast projects 2022 RV shipments to range between 537,800 and 561,900 units with a most likely year-end total of 549,900 units, an (-8.4%) decline from the 600,240 shipped in 2021”. They previously were predicting a 4% increase or 600,000 units in 2022.

Now, given that sales are slumping about 30% right now, it is a little surprising that they have not downgraded their shipment expectations further; but I think they will. Sales are primarily being impacted by four things right now:

  1. Fuel Prices almost double what they were a year ago, in some areas of the country even more than double.
  2. Inflation of almost 9% (So far); It’s hard to invest at a time when groceries are costing at least 17% more at checkout.
  3. Interest rates are climbing, making the any loans less desirable.
  4. Below Average Quality due to increased output causing lack of trust among consumers.

It would be easy to say something like “Well those RV guys made a lot of sales during Covid and their quality wasn’t good, so they are getting a little Karma”. Actually I would agree that the quality was absolutely lacking during their incredible manufacturing boon of 2021. However, they are producing against orders and carrying inventory at the Dealerships. It’s the huge demand that fueled the previous years manufacturing.

To be quite frank, not just the RV industry will suffer as a result of the weakened economy. It is all the supporting infrastructure as well. Here’s just a bit of the spider web of that gets affected:

  1. RV production line manufacturing jobs
  2. Suppliers that provide parts/materials directly to the RV Manufacturers such as wood, steel, aluminum, composites, roofing, electrical components, plumbing, fixtures, and furniture and cabinetry.
  3. RV transportation companies
  4. Third Party Maintenance and Part Suppliers such as Chemical Treatments, Dump Valves, Hoses, Converters, Roof Sealant etc.
  5. Upgrade Suppliers like Surge Protectors, Tire Monitoring Equipment, Vent Covers, etc.
  6. Campgrounds and Campground Memberships
  7. Tire and Suspension manufacturers
  8. RV Dealership Sales and Technicians.
  9. Mobil RV Techs
  10. Banks that provide loans for new/used RVs.

I’m sure I have missed a few in there but you can see the implications are far reaching. This industry supports over 680,000 jobs and provides 13.6 billion in tax revenue.

So let’s see where this leads when Junes Shipments come out. I expect that the numbers will be lower and the forecast will be adjusted downward. As soon as they come out I will be back to talk about it.